Scenario lens
Stress-test the pathway
Controls alter likelihood—not impact. They are sensitivity tests, not forecasts.
Executive decision support · Analysis baseline: 24 September 2026
Assessing East Africa’s path to AFCON 2027 readiness.
A whole-of-tournament risk view across facilities, finance, institutions, operations, people and legacy—designed to test what must be true for East Africa to deliver well.
Analytical model—not an official CAF assessment
Scores are working judgments from public reporting and Brian Wesaala’s analysis. Every risk is labelled by evidence status.
Hypothetical controls
Decision signal
Current course
68
Portfolio exposure
High
Executive priority
The critical distinction
Compliance vs. delivery
—
Facility compliance
Venues, training sites, overlays and formal testing.
≠
—
Broader delivery
Governance, people, security, systems, mobility and legacy.
5 × 5 qualitative matrix
Where exposure concentrates
Moderate High Critical
Impact →
Likelihood →
Geographic lens
Comparative exposure
Scores compare the risks in this register, not country performance or CAF compliance status.
Action agenda
Risks demanding attention
Living risk register
Interrogate the assumptions
Filter, rank, and open any risk to inspect indicators, mitigation, ownership and evidence status.
28risks shown
Showing adjusted scores: Current course
| Risk | Geography | Category | Evidence | Likelihood | Impact | Exposure | Owner |
|---|
No risks match these filters.
Transparent by design
A decision aid, not a verdict.
The desk uses a qualitative likelihood × impact model aligned to common project-risk practice. It makes assumptions visible, distinguishes source strength, and keeps facility compliance separate from end-to-end tournament readiness.
Scoring
Likelihood and impact are each rated 1–5. Exposure is their product. 20–25 is Critical, 12–19 High, 6–11 Moderate, and 1–5 Low.
Categories
Risks are grouped using familiar project domains: scope, schedule, cost, quality, resources, procurement, governance, communications, legal, security, technology, team services, operations and benefits.
Evidence labels
Verified means supported by an attributable primary or high-reliability source. Reported means credible public reporting. Assumption means a proposition to validate.
Scenario logic
Controls adjust likelihood according to each risk’s sensitivity. Impact remains fixed. Results show direction and concentration—not statistical probability.
Assumption ledger
What this model does—and does not—claim
Working assumptions
- The current delivery window is compressed.
- Facilities may progress faster than institutional and operational systems.
- Cross-border dependencies can amplify a local delay.
- A host guarantee may secure political commitment without transferring financial completion risk.
- Host-team outcomes can influence confidence, engagement and perceived public value.
- Publicly visible progress is an incomplete proxy for integrated readiness.
Not asserted as fact
- No venue is declared compliant or non-compliant.
- No confidential CAF inspection result is inferred.
- No country is declared incapable of hosting.
- No scenario predicts Kenya’s performance, national dissent or public unrest.
- No scenario is presented as a forecast or recommendation by CAF.
Selected public basis
Starting points for validation
Strategic delay analysisBrian Wesaala · 18 Jun 2026
CAF confidence and acknowledged challengesReuters · 17 Sep 2026
January testing deadline and Kenya venue deficienciesBBC Sport Africa · 19 Sep 2026
CAF flags single-visa and Uganda accommodation gapsThe EastAfrican · 23 Sep 2026
Akii-Bua construction progress and backup-venue statusNBS Sport · 15 Sep 2026
AFCON 2027 competition hubCAF · Official source
Financing structure and completion-risk lensIntellifoot · 22 Jun 2026
KPL league-composition dispute and court ordersCitizen Digital · 18 Sep 2026
FKF postpones the 2026/27 league kickoffCitizen TV Kenya · 19 Sep 2026
This is not a comprehensive evidence repository. Risk owners should replace working assumptions with dated source records, inspection outputs, milestones and accountable actions.
Football as Infrastructure
Help strengthen the evidence base.
Submit dated, attributable information about AFCON 2027 investment or delivery. Every submission enters a private review queue. It will not alter the assessment or appear publicly unless it is independently assessed and verified.